Sustainable Bank Management Via Evaluating Impacts of Internal and External Macro Factors on Lending Interest Rate in Vietnam

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Pham Van Hong, Huynh Xuan Nguyen, Dinh Tran Ngoc Huy, Le Thi Viet Nga, Nguyen Thi Ngoc Lan, Nguyen Ngoc Thach, Hoang Thanh Hanh

Résumé

Banks in Vietnam over years have contributed to economic growth  by many financial services such as lending to companies large and small, helping them grow, creating jobs and real economic value at home and in communities. Good bank management requires us to consider the impacts of multi internal and external macro factors on lending rate, and it contributes to promoting sustainable business plan and economic policies for economic growth and stabilizing macroeconomic factors. By data collection method through statistics, analysis, synthesis, comparison, quantitative analysis to generate qualitative comments and discussion; using econometric method to perform regression equation and evaluate quantitative results, the article analyzed and evaluated the impacts of SEVEN (7) internal and external macroeconomic factors such as: exchange rate, lending rate, inflation, GPD growth in Vietnam and USA, S&P500, trade balance etc. on Vietnam commercial bank lending rate in the period of 2014-2019, both positive and negative sides. The results of quantitative research, in a seven factor model, show that the increase in inflation, increase in GDP US has a positive effect on increasing commercial bank lending rate, but the highest impacts is decrease in inflation and GDP growth in Vietnam.If inflation in Vietnam increases and GDP growth decreases, lending rate also increases, while exchange rate just has slightly negative impact on lending rate. This research finding and recommended policy also can be used as reference in policy for commercial bank and financial system in many developing countries.

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