Forecasting Fertility and Child Mortality Rates of Pakistan Using Time Series Model

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Abdul Raziq, Naveed Sheikh, Muhammad Rafique, Ghulam Murtaza, Arbab Muhammad Jehandad, Muhammad Alam Tareen


Fertility and infant mortality rates play a crucial role for a demographic change of a country. Accurate forecasting of these rates is important for national health services to implement new policies and to improve health indicators. In this study, fertility rate and child mortality rates of Pakistan are forecasted to the year 2030 using Box-Jenkins methodology. The diagnostic check shown that ARIMA (1,3,2) model is appropriate for a fertility rate and ARIMA (1,3,3) is appropriate for a mortality rate of Pakistan. The findings of the current study based on mortality rate during the period (1960-2015) and fertility rate during the period (1960-2013). Forecasted values are very close to original values and by the criteria of MSE, AIC, P-value, Dickey fuller unit root test, Ljung –Box-Pierce Q-statistic and graphical methods including ACF and PCF the model was validated. The projected fertility rate of Pakistan would be 3.24 (births per woman) and child mortality rates of Pakistan would be 42.7487 (deaths per 1,000 live births) until 2030. The fertility rate of Pakistan would decline by 0.4416; whereas the mortality rate would decline by 23.0513 until 2030. This forecast will help to policy makers to see a head in future and make appropriate measure to control mortality and fertility rates. The study results suggested that medical health facilities and public awareness be more focused in Pakistan as Pakistan ranks 146th for fertility rate and 180th out of 196 countries for infant mortality rate.

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