Forecasting of Cotton Production in Sindh Province, Pakistan by Using Different Trend Curves

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Imran Jatoi, Ali Akbar Pirzado, Dr. Muhammad Hanif Lakho, Amanullah Tunio, Suhail Aslam Khaskeli

Résumé

The present study attempted to forecast Cotton production in Sindh Province for the year 2011-12 by using different trend curve models. For the purpose, secondary data were used. Data for the study were collected from Cotton Section, Sindh Agriculture Research Institute, Tando Jam, Hyderabad. The statistical Software Curve Expert.1.4. was used for analysis and forecasting. Different Trend curve models like modified exponential curve, gompertz curve, logistic curve, Parabolic Curve, polynomial curve, sinusoidal curve was used. The results revealed that among all the models, with standard error value of 471.36 and  0.75 value of r, Gompertz model was found best fitted curve to data. Gompertz curve model forecasted 3895.72 thounsad bales of cotton production in Sindh Province for 2011-12.  The Logistic Model was found second best fit model with standard error value of 472.71 and value of r stood at 0.75 and forecasted value of 3939.48 thounsdn tonnes. Sindh Province for 2011-12. Based on the results of this study, it  suggested that these models can be used on other data of different crops for forecasting by goverments institutes, Non-Govermental Organizations aand other policy making bodies for future panning and stretgies

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